@article {4401, title = {Land Use Guidelines to Maintain Habitat Diversity of Wood- Pastures in the Southern Carpathians Under Projected Climate Change}, journal = {Landscape Online}, volume = {74}, year = {2019}, month = {Oct-09-2019}, pages = {1 - 24}, abstract = {

The biodiversity of wood-pastures depends on a balance between human interference and natural vegetation succession, which however is undergoing changes driven by socio-economic factors and climate change. Widely spread throughout Europe, wood-pastures were subject to either intensification or abandonment, leading to habitat segregation and loss. This is currently the fate of large Romanian remnant woodpastures and climate warming further complicates management adaptation.
In a series of simulation experiments, we compared the long-term effects of different land use and climate change scenarios on the habitat diversity of a wood-pasture in the Southern Carpathians (Fundata village, Romania). We tested livestock densities according to management guidelines, complemented with shrub-cutting in order to maintain a structurally-diverse landscape with high habitat values in the light of climate change. We found that significant losses of open pastureland and inclusion into forest, as well as landscape structural simplification and loss of complex habitats can be expected from climate warming, with more severe consequences in a hotter climate perspective. We arguefor the re-establishment of the traditional multi-use of wood-pastures at optimum livestock densities in combination with low-intensity shrubcutting, because our study demonstrated that traditional practices offer a balanced compromise between agricultural use and maintaining habitat mosaics that are robust to climate change.

}, doi = {10.3097/LO.201974}, url = {https://www.landscape-online.org/index.php/lo/article/view/LO.201974https://www.landscape-online.org/index.php/lo/article/download/LO.201974/87https://www.landscape-online.org/index.php/lo/article/download/LO.201974/87}, author = {Stoicescu, Iona and P{\u a}tru-Stupariu, Ileana and Hossu, Constantina Alina and Peringer, Alexander} } @article {4396, title = {Linking Spatial and Temporal Modeling: A Case Study from the Eastern Pamir, TJ}, journal = {International Journal of Geoinformatics}, volume = {15}, year = {2019}, month = {10/2019}, pages = {29-41}, abstract = {

The Eastern Pamir of Tajikistan is a remote high mountain region located in the east of Tajikistan. Today, a great share of the Eastern Pamir\’s local energy demand is satisfied by dwarf shrubs (Krascheninnikovia ceratoides and Artemisia spp.) and animal manure. Besides of their energetic potential, dwarf shrubs are an important nutrient source for local livestock. It is assumed that overuse of local dwarf shrub stands leads to a degradation of pastures. With decreasing pasture quality, potentially, less livestock can be kept by locals. Besides of the economic losses associated with a decrease in livestock numbers, yields of manure also decline. In order to compensate the missing manure yields, locals may harvest even more dwarf shrubs. Thus, potentially a self-reinforcing functional chain exists in this system. BRECKLE AND WUCHERER (2006) refer to the degradation of pasturelands due to excessive dwarf shrub harvest in the Pamir Mountains as teresken syndrome. In a field study, we identified typical current energy carrier usage patterns in the village of Alichur, the second largest settlement in the Eastern Pamir. We then used a System Dynamics and Geographical Information Systems combining hybrid approach to analyze the energy system of Alichur and we modeled two scenarios of the system: one pessimistic in terms of dwarf shrub growth and one optimistic. Both scenarios show that in the short to medium term a collapse of the energy system of Alichur is unlikely to happen. The optimistic scenario indicates that resource consumption currently is sustainable in terms of pasture quality and dwarf shrub balance. The assumed self-reinforcing functional chain could not be confirmed. After all, the model provides strong indications that the teresken syndrome does not apply for Alichur. In addition to these findings, the case study shows, that combining SD and GIS in one model, allows for a conceptual understanding of the modeled system (mainly SD part), mass-balance simulations (SD and GIS parts) and visualization of model results (GIS part). Thereby, in addition to the case study results, this work demonstrates that System Dynamics and Geographical Information Systems combining hybrid approaches are a powerful tool for case study analysis, model simulation and result presentation. The approach is able to clarify structural assumption on the regional Social-Ecological-System and to support management decision.

}, author = {Hohberg, G. and Schwarz-v Raumer, H. G.} } @article {4389, title = {The effect of environmental conditions on Atlantic salmon smolts{\textquoteright} (Salmo salar) bioenergetic requirements and migration through an inland sea}, journal = {Environmental Biology of Fishes}, volume = {101}, year = {2018}, month = {Jan-10-2018}, pages = {1467 - 1482}, issn = {0378-1909}, doi = {10.1007/s10641-018-0792-5}, url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10641-018-0792-5http://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10641-018-0792-5.pdfhttp://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10641-018-0792-5/fulltext.htmlhttp://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10641-018-0792-5.pdf}, author = {Strople, Leah C. and Filgueira, Ram{\'o}n and Hatcher, Bruce G. and Denny, Shelley and Bordeleau, Xavier and Whoriskey, Frederick G. and Crossin, Glenn T.} } @article {4400, title = {An integrated model to evaluate water-energy-food nexus at a household scale}, journal = {Environmental Modelling \& Software}, volume = {93}, year = {2017}, month = {Jan-07-2017}, pages = {366 - 380}, abstract = {

To achieve a sustainable supply and effectively manage water, energy and food (WEF) demand, interactions between WEF need to be understood. This study developed an integrated model, capturing the interactions between WEF at end-use level at a household scale. The model is based on a survey of 419 households conducted to investigate WEF over winter and summer for the city of Duhok, Iraq. A bottom-up approach was used to develop this system dynamics-based model. The model estimates WEF demand and the generated organic waste and wastewater quantities. It also investigates the impact of change in user behaviour, diet, income, family size and climate.

The simulation results show a good agreement with the historical data. Using the model, the impact of Global Scenario Group (GSG) scenarios was investigated. The results suggest that the \‘fortress world\’ scenario (an authoritarian response to the threat of breakdown) had the highest impact on WEF.

}, issn = {13648152}, doi = {10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.03.034}, url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1364815216306594https://api.elsevier.com/content/article/PII:S1364815216306594?httpAccept=text/xmlhttps://api.elsevier.com/content/article/PII:S1364815216306594?httpAccept=text/plain}, author = {Hussien, Wa{\textquoteright}el A. and Memon, Fayyaz A. and Savi{\'c}, Dragan A.} } @article {4262, title = {Multiscale digital Arabidopsis predicts individual organ and whole-organism growth}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}, year = {2014}, abstract = {Understanding how dynamic molecular networks affect whole-organism physiology, analogous to mapping genotype to phenotype, remains a key challenge in biology. Quantitative models that represent processes at multiple scales and link understanding from several research domains can help to tackle this problem. Such integrated models are more common in crop science and ecophysiology than in the research communities that elucidate molecular networks. Several laboratories have modeled particular aspects of growth in Arabidopsis thaliana, but it was unclear whether these existing models could productively be combined. We test this approach by constructing a multiscale model of Arabidopsis rosette growth. Four existing models were integrated with minimal parameter modification (leaf water content and one flowering parameter used measured data). The resulting framework model links genetic regulation and biochemical dynamics to events at the organ and whole-plant levels, helping to understand the combined effects of endogenous and environmental regulators on Arabidopsis growth. The framework model was validated and tested with metabolic, physiological, and biomass data from two laboratories, for five photoperiods, three accessions, and a transgenic line, highlighting the plasticity of plant growth strategies. The model was extended to include stochastic development. Model simulations gave insight into the developmental control of leaf production and provided a quantitative explanation for the pleiotropic developmental phenotype caused by overexpression of miR156, which was an open question. Modular, multiscale models, assembling knowledge from systems biology to ecophysiology, will help to understand and to engineer plant behavior from the genome to the field.}, issn = {1091-6490}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1410238111}, url = {http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2014/08/27/1410238111.full.pdf+html?sid=66edb45d-8e99-4d84-a072-a47729a65e14}, author = {Chew, Y. H. and Wenden, B. and Flis, A. and Mengin, V. and Taylor, J. and Davey, C. L. and Tindal, C. and Thomas, H. and Ougham, H. J. and de Reffye, P. and Stitt, M. and Williams, M. and Muetzelfeldt, R. and Halliday, K. J. and Millar, A. J.} } @article {4222, title = {Ein Ansatz zur r{\"a}umlich- dynamischen Modellierung am Beispiel der Tereskenernte im Ostpamir }, year = {2013}, url = {http://gispoint.de/fileadmin/user_upload/paper_gis_open/537533033.pdf}, author = {Georg HOHBERG} } @article {4379, title = {Uncovering land-use dynamics driven by human decision-making {\textendash} A combined model approach using cellular automata and system dynamics}, journal = {Environmental Modelling \& Software}, volume = {27-28}, year = {2012}, month = {Jan-01-2012}, pages = {71 - 82}, issn = {13648152}, doi = {10.1016/j.envsoft.2011.09.005}, url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1364815211002039https://api.elsevier.com/content/article/PII:S1364815211002039?httpAccept=text/xmlhttps://api.elsevier.com/content/article/PII:S1364815211002039?httpAccept=text/plain}, author = {Lauf, S. and Haase, D. and Hostert, P. and Lakes, T. and Kleinschmit, B.} } @article {4216, title = {An assessment of the Economics, Implementation and Modelling of Universal MRSA Screening}, number = {2}, year = {2011}, url = {http://www.documents.hps.scot.nhs.uk/hai/mrsa-screening/pathfinder-programme/mrsa-pathfinder-vol2-2011-02-23.pdf} } @inbook {1536, title = {Chapter Seven Integrated Modelling Frameworks for Environmental Assessment and Decision Support}, booktitle = {Developments in Integrated Environmental Assessment}, volume = {3}, year = {2008}, pages = {101-118}, publisher = { Elsevier}, organization = { Elsevier}, chapter = {7}, abstract = {

In this chapter we investigate the motivation behind the development of modelling frameworks that explicitly target the environmental domain. Despite many commercial and industrial-strength frameworks being available, we claim that there is a definite niche for environmental-specific frameworks. We first introduce a general definition of what is an environmental integrated modelling framework, leading to an outline of the requirements for a generic software architecture for such frameworks. This identifies the need for a knowledge layer to support the modelling layer and an experimentation layer to support the execution of models.

The chapter then focuses on the themes of knowledge representation, model management and model execution. We advocate that appropriate knowledge representation and management tools can facilitate model integration and linking. We stress that a model development process adhering to industry standards and good practices, called \“model engineering,\” is to be pursued. We focus on the requirements of the experimental frame, which can ensure transparency and traceability in the execution of simulation scenarios and optimisation problems associated with complex integrated assessment studies.

A promising trend for knowledge representation is the use of ontologies that have the capacity to elicit the meaning of knowledge in a manner that is logical, consistent and understandable by computers and the knowledge worker community. This new path in knowledge-based computing will support retention of institutional knowledge, while putting modelling back in the hands of modellers. Environmental modelling will then become a conceptual activity, focusing on model design rather than model implementation, with code generation being delegated to some degree to ontology-aware tools. In this respect, we envision the whole model lifecycle to change drastically, becoming more of a theoretical activity and less of a coding-intensive, highly engineering-oriented task.

}, keywords = {environmental integrated modelling frameworks, knowledge representation, model engineering, model management, modelling frameworks}, isbn = {9780080568867}, doi = {doi:10.1016/S1574-101X(08)00607-8}, author = {A. E. Rizzoli and G. Leavesley and J. C. Ascough II and R. M. Argent and I. N. Athanasiadis and V. Brilhante and F. H. A. Claeys and O. David and M. Donatelli and P. Gijsbers and D. Havlik and A. Kassahun and P. Krause and N. W. T. Quinn and H. Scholten and R. S. Sojda and F. Villa}, editor = {A. J. Jakeman and A. A. Voinov and A. E. Rizzoli and S. H. Chen} } @article {1535, title = {Semantic links in integrated modelling frameworks}, journal = {Mathematics and Computers in Simulation}, volume = {78}, year = {2008}, month = {07/2008}, pages = {412-423}, abstract = {

It is commonly accepted that modelling frameworks offer a powerful tool for modellers, researchers and decision makers, since they allow the management, re-use and integration of mathematical models from various disciplines and at different spatial and temporal scales. However, the actual re-usability of models depends on a number of factors such as the accessibility of the source code, the compatibility of different binary platforms, and often it is left to the modellers own discipline and responsibility to structure a complex model in such a way that it is decomposed in smaller re-usable sub-components. What reusable and interchangeable means is also somewhat vague; although several approaches to build modelling frameworks have been developed, little attention has been dedicated to the intrinsic re-usability of components, in particular between different modelling frameworks. In this paper, we focus on how models can be linked together to build complex integrated models. We stress that even if a model component interface is clear and reusable from a software standpoint, this is not a sufficient condition for reusing a component across different integrated modelling frameworks. This reveals the need for adding rich semantics in model interfaces.

}, keywords = {Integrated modelling frameworks, Model linking, Model reuse, Ontologies}, doi = {dx:10.1016/j.matcom.2008.01.017 }, author = {Andrea E. Rizzoli and Marcello Donatelli and Ioannis N. Athanasiadis and Ferdinando Villa and David Huber} } @article {4214, title = {The clinical and cost effectiveness of screening for meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA)}, year = {2007}, issn = {HTA 9}, url = {http://www.healthcareimprovementscotland.org/his/idoc.ashx?docid=4cd58ffa-afdb-45bb-b0d5-22782b3f327d\&version=-1}, author = {Ritchie K and Bradbury I and Craig J and Eastgate J and Foster L and Kohli H and Iqbal K and MacPherson K and McCarthy T and McIntosh H and Nic Lochlainn E and Reid M and Taylor J} }