@article {4407, title = {Water-food-energy nexus for transboundary cooperation in Eastern Africa}, journal = {Water Supply}, year = {2022}, month = {Mar-01-2022}, abstract = {Establishing cooperation in transboundary rivers is challenging especially with the weak or non-existent river basin institutions. A nexus-based approach is developed to explore cooperation opportunities in transboundary river basins while considering system operation and coordination under uncertain hydrologic river regimes. The proposed approach is applied to the Nile river basin with a special focus on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), assuming two possible governance positions: with or without cooperation. A cooperation mechanism is developed to allocate additional releases from the GERD when necessary, while a unilateral position assumes that the GERD is operated to maximize hydropower generation regardless of downstream users{\textquoteright} needs. The GERD operation modes were analysed considering operation of downstream reservoirs and varying demands in Egypt. Results show that average basin-wide hydropower generation is likely to increase by about 547 GWh/year (1\%) if cooperation is adopted when compared to the unilateral position. In Sudan, hydropower generation and water supply are expected to enhance in the unilateral position and would improve further with cooperation. Furthermore, elevated low flows by the GERD are likely to improve the WFE nexus outcomes in Egypt under full cooperation governance scenario with a small reduction in GERD hydropower generation (2,000 GWh/year (19\%)). }, issn = {1606-9749}, doi = {10.2166/ws.2022.001}, url = {https://iwaponline.com/ws/article/doi/10.2166/ws.2022.001/86211/Water-food-energy-nexus-for-transboundary}, author = {Elsayed, Hamdy and Djordjevi{\'c}, Slobodan and Savic, Dragan and Tsoukalas, Ioannis and Makropoulos, Christos} } @article {4394, title = {The Nile Water-Food-Energy Nexus under Uncertainty: Impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam}, journal = {Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management}, volume = {146}, year = {2020}, month = {Jan-11-2020}, pages = {04020085}, abstract = {

Achieving a water, food, and energy (WFE) nexus balance through policy interventions is challenging in a transboundary river basin because of the dynamic nature and intersectoral complexity that may cross borders. The Nile basin is shared by a number of riparian countries and is currently experiencing rapid population and economic growth. This has sparked new developments to meet the growing water, food, and energy demands, alleviate poverty, and improve the livelihood in the basin. Such developments could result in basinwide cooperation or trigger conflicts among the riparian countries. A system dynamics model was developed for the entire Nile basin and integrated with the food and energy sectors in Egypt to investigate the future of the WFE nexus with and without the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) during filling and subsequent operation using basinwide stochastically generated flows. Different filling rates from 10\% to 100\% of the average monthly flow are considered during the filling process. Results suggest that the GERD filling and operation would affect the WFE nexus in Egypt, with the impact likely to be significant if the filling process occurred during a dry period. Food production from irrigated agriculture would be reduced by 9\%\–19\% during filling and by about 4\% during GERD operation compared with the case without it. The irrigation water supply and hydropower generation in Sudan will be reduced during the filling phase of the GERD, but this is expected to be improved during the dam operation phase as a result of the regulation afforded by the GERD. Ethiopian hydropower generation is expected to be boosted by the GERD during the filling and operation of the dam, adding an average of 15,000\ \ GWh/year15,000\ \ GWh/year once GERD comes online. Lastly, the results reveal the urgency of cooperation and coordination among the riparian countries to minimize the regional risks and maximize the regional rewards associated with the GERD.

}, issn = {0733-9496}, doi = {10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0001285}, url = {http://ascelibrary.org/doi/10.1061/\%28ASCE\%29WR.1943-5452.0001285http://ascelibrary.org/doi/pdf/10.1061/\%28ASCE\%29WR.1943-5452.0001285}, author = {Elsayed, Hamdy and Djordjevi{\'c}, Slobodan and Savi{\'c}, Dragan A. and Tsoukalas, Ioannis and Makropoulos, Christos} } @article {4401, title = {Land Use Guidelines to Maintain Habitat Diversity of Wood- Pastures in the Southern Carpathians Under Projected Climate Change}, journal = {Landscape Online}, volume = {74}, year = {2019}, month = {Oct-09-2019}, pages = {1 - 24}, abstract = {

The biodiversity of wood-pastures depends on a balance between human interference and natural vegetation succession, which however is undergoing changes driven by socio-economic factors and climate change. Widely spread throughout Europe, wood-pastures were subject to either intensification or abandonment, leading to habitat segregation and loss. This is currently the fate of large Romanian remnant woodpastures and climate warming further complicates management adaptation.
In a series of simulation experiments, we compared the long-term effects of different land use and climate change scenarios on the habitat diversity of a wood-pasture in the Southern Carpathians (Fundata village, Romania). We tested livestock densities according to management guidelines, complemented with shrub-cutting in order to maintain a structurally-diverse landscape with high habitat values in the light of climate change. We found that significant losses of open pastureland and inclusion into forest, as well as landscape structural simplification and loss of complex habitats can be expected from climate warming, with more severe consequences in a hotter climate perspective. We arguefor the re-establishment of the traditional multi-use of wood-pastures at optimum livestock densities in combination with low-intensity shrubcutting, because our study demonstrated that traditional practices offer a balanced compromise between agricultural use and maintaining habitat mosaics that are robust to climate change.

}, doi = {10.3097/LO.201974}, url = {https://www.landscape-online.org/index.php/lo/article/view/LO.201974https://www.landscape-online.org/index.php/lo/article/download/LO.201974/87https://www.landscape-online.org/index.php/lo/article/download/LO.201974/87}, author = {Stoicescu, Iona and P{\u a}tru-Stupariu, Ileana and Hossu, Constantina Alina and Peringer, Alexander} } @article {4390, title = {Mussels or tunicates: That is the question. Evaluating efficient and sustainable resource use by low-trophic species in aquaculture settings}, journal = {Journal of Cleaner Production}, volume = {231}, year = {2019}, month = {Jan-09-2019}, pages = {132 - 143}, issn = {09596526}, doi = {10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.05.173}, author = {Filgueira, Ram{\'o}n and Strople, Leah C. and Strohmeier, Tore and Rastrick, Samuel and Strand, {\O}ivind} } @article {4389, title = {The effect of environmental conditions on Atlantic salmon smolts{\textquoteright} (Salmo salar) bioenergetic requirements and migration through an inland sea}, journal = {Environmental Biology of Fishes}, volume = {101}, year = {2018}, month = {Jan-10-2018}, pages = {1467 - 1482}, issn = {0378-1909}, doi = {10.1007/s10641-018-0792-5}, url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10641-018-0792-5http://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10641-018-0792-5.pdfhttp://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10641-018-0792-5/fulltext.htmlhttp://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10641-018-0792-5.pdf}, author = {Strople, Leah C. and Filgueira, Ram{\'o}n and Hatcher, Bruce G. and Denny, Shelley and Bordeleau, Xavier and Whoriskey, Frederick G. and Crossin, Glenn T.} } @article {4403, title = {Intermediate foraging large herbivores maintain semi-open habitats in wilderness landscape simulations}, journal = {Ecological Modelling}, volume = {379}, year = {2018}, month = {Jan-07-2018}, pages = {10 - 21}, abstract = {

In the context of the rewilding Europe debate, the German national strategy on biodiversity aims to dedicate two percent of the German state area to wilderness development until 2020. Many of these potential large wilderness reserves harbor open habitats that require protection according to the Flora-Fauna-Habitat-directive of the European Union. As forests prevail in potential natural vegetation, research is required, to which extent wild large herbivores and natural disturbances may create semi-open landscape patterns in the long-term. We used the spatially explicit process-based model of pasture-woodland ecosystem dynamics WoodPaM, to analyze the long-term interactions between intermediate foraging large wild herbivores and vegetation dynamics in edaphically heterogeneous forest-grassland mosaic landscapes. We newly implemented a routine for intermediate foraging herbivores. We determined herbivore impact on vegetation from the quantitative balance between the demand and supply of herbaceous forage and woody browse. In abstract landscapes that represent the conditions in the established German wilderness area \"D\öberitzer Heide\", we simulated potential future landscape dynamics on open land, in forest and along forest edges with and without intermediate foraging large herbivores and for a climate change scenario. In our simulations the currently open landscape was conserved and even more the opening of current oak and beech forest was promoted. Canopy thinning and patch-mosaics of oak, birch, poplar and pine stands increased the overall nature conservation value in the long-term. To the contrary, open habitats were lost in simulations without herbivores. Moreover, our simulations suggested that intermediate foraging herbivores are especially suitable to maintain semi-open landscapes in wilderness areas, because (i) no additional winter forage was required, the natural availability of browse was sufficient. (ii) Their grazing maintained open land and their browsing thinned tree canopies even on poor sites that were unattractive for foraging. Here, habitat was maintained for threatened species from dry grasslands.

}, issn = {03043800}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2018.04.002}, url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0304380018301133}, author = {Schulze, Kiowa Alraune and Rosenthal, Gert and Peringer, Alexander} } @article {4402, title = {Shifts in wind energy potential following land-use driven vegetation dynamics in complex terrain}, journal = {Science of The Total Environment}, volume = {639}, year = {2018}, month = {Jan-10-2018}, pages = {374 - 384}, abstract = {

Many mountainous regions with high wind energy potential are characterized by multi-scale variabilities of vegetation in both spatial and time dimensions, which strongly affect the spatial distribution of wind resource and its time evolution. To this end, we developed a coupled interdisciplinary modeling framework capable of assessing the shifts in wind energy potential following land-use driven vegetation dynamics in complex mountain terrain. It was applied to a case study area in the Romanian Carpathians. The results show that the overall shifts in wind energy potential following the changes of vegetation pattern due to different land-use policies can be dramatic. This suggests that the planning of wind energy project should be integrated with the land-use planning at a specific site to ensure that the expected energy production of the planned wind farm can be reached over its entire lifetime. Moreover, the changes in the spatial distribution of wind and turbulence under different scenarios of land-use are complex, and they must be taken into account in the micro-siting of wind turbines to maximize wind energy production and minimize fatigue loads (and associated maintenance costs). The proposed new modeling framework offers, for the first time, a powerful tool for assessing long-term variability in local wind energy potential that emerges from land-use change driven vegetation dynamics over complex terrain. Following a previously unexplored pathway of cause-effect relationships, it demonstrates a new linkage of agro- and forest policies in landscape development with an ultimate trade-off between renewable energy production and biodiversity targets. Moreover, it can be extended to study the potential effects of micro-climatic changes associated with wind farms on vegetation development (growth and patterning), which could in turn have a long-term feedback effect on wind resource distribution in mountainous regions.

}, issn = {00489697}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.05.083}, url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0048969718317182https://api.elsevier.com/content/article/PII:S0048969718317182?httpAccept=text/xmlhttps://api.elsevier.com/content/article/PII:S0048969718317182?httpAccept=text/plain}, author = {Fang, Jiannong and Peringer, Alexander and Stupariu, Mihai-Sorin and P{\u a}tru-Stupariu, Ileana and Buttler, Alexandre and Golay, Francois and Port{\'e}-Agel, Fernando} } @article {4404, title = {Disturbance-grazer-vegetation interactions maintain habitat diversity in mountain pasture-woodlands}, journal = {Ecological Modelling}, volume = {359}, year = {2017}, month = {Jan-09-2017}, pages = {301 - 310}, abstract = {

Low-intensity livestock grazing is a widespread management tool in order to maintain habitat diversity in mountain pasture-woodlands for nature conservation purposes. Historical photographs indicate that forest disturbance significantly contributed to forest-grassland mosaic pattern formation. Disturbance-grazer interactions are however poorly understood and the effects of logging or windthrow are rarely considered in management plans. Moreover, disturbance-grazer interactions are crucial for the maintenance of open habitats in the upcoming \“rewilding\” approach of nature conservation. We aimed to understand the effects of forest gap creation by the breakdown of senile trees or by single-tree cutting and of large forest openings by windthrow or logging on mosaic pattern formation in pasture-woodlands that were grazed by cattle and dominated by tree species with distinct regeneration ecology (Picea abies vs. Fagus sylvatica). We used the process-based model of pasture-woodland vegetation dynamics WoodPaM and newly implemented a forest disturbance routine. We simulated disturbance and grazing scenarios in an artificial mountain landscape and analyzed mosaic patterns with landscape metrics. We found that grazing in absence of disturbance promoted simply structured mosaics that were preconditioned by topography. Only large-scale forest disturbance disrupted this pattern and maintained the historical heterogeneous distribution of grassland communities across all habitat conditions (especially species-rich mountain grasslands on poor soil). This prerequisite is stronger in pasture-woodlands where the ecology of the dominant tree species promotes forest-grassland segregation (F. sylvatica in our case) and less in naturally thin-canopy mountain forest close to the tree line (P. abies). In wilderness areas, the very low density of grazers may limit the maintenance of open habitats regardless disturbance.

}, issn = {03043800}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2017.06.012}, url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S030438001730100Xhttps://api.elsevier.com/content/article/PII:S030438001730100X?httpAccept=text/xmlhttps://api.elsevier.com/content/article/PII:S030438001730100X?httpAccept=text/plain}, author = {Peringer, Alexander and Buttler, Alexandre and Gillet, Fran{\c c}ois and P{\u a}tru-Stupariu, Ileana and Schulze, Kiowa A. and Stupariu, Mihai-Sorin and Rosenthal, Gert} } @article {4400, title = {An integrated model to evaluate water-energy-food nexus at a household scale}, journal = {Environmental Modelling \& Software}, volume = {93}, year = {2017}, month = {Jan-07-2017}, pages = {366 - 380}, abstract = {

To achieve a sustainable supply and effectively manage water, energy and food (WEF) demand, interactions between WEF need to be understood. This study developed an integrated model, capturing the interactions between WEF at end-use level at a household scale. The model is based on a survey of 419 households conducted to investigate WEF over winter and summer for the city of Duhok, Iraq. A bottom-up approach was used to develop this system dynamics-based model. The model estimates WEF demand and the generated organic waste and wastewater quantities. It also investigates the impact of change in user behaviour, diet, income, family size and climate.

The simulation results show a good agreement with the historical data. Using the model, the impact of Global Scenario Group (GSG) scenarios was investigated. The results suggest that the \‘fortress world\’ scenario (an authoritarian response to the threat of breakdown) had the highest impact on WEF.

}, issn = {13648152}, doi = {10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.03.034}, url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1364815216306594https://api.elsevier.com/content/article/PII:S1364815216306594?httpAccept=text/xmlhttps://api.elsevier.com/content/article/PII:S1364815216306594?httpAccept=text/plain}, author = {Hussien, Wa{\textquoteright}el A. and Memon, Fayyaz A. and Savi{\'c}, Dragan A.} } @article {4356, title = {Intermediate tree cover can maximize groundwater recharge in the seasonally dry tropics}, journal = {Scientific Reports}, volume = {6}, year = {2016}, month = {Jan-04-2016}, doi = {10.1038/srep21930}, url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/srep21930http://www.nature.com/articles/srep21930.pdfhttp://www.nature.com/articles/srep21930.pdfhttp://www.nature.com/articles/srep21930}, author = {Ilstedt, U. and Bargu?s Tobella, A. and Bazi?, H. R. and Bayala, J. and Verbeeten, E. and Nyberg, G. and Sanou, J. and Benegas, L. and Murdiyarso, D. and Laudon, H. and Sheil, D. and Malmer, A.} } @article {4405, title = {Landscape-scale simulation experiments test Romanian and Swiss management guidelines for mountain pasture-woodland habitat diversity}, journal = {Ecological Modelling}, volume = {330}, year = {2016}, month = {Jan-06-2016}, pages = {41 - 49}, abstract = {

Distinct guidelines have been proposed in Romania and Switzerland for the management of pasture-woodlands that either focused on the regulation of grazing pressure (Romanian production perspective) or overall tree cover (Swiss conservation perspective). However, the landscape structural diversity and the cover of forest-grassland ecotones, which are both crucial for nature conservation value, were not explicitly considered.

We aimed to compare the country-specific management guidelines regarding their efficiency for the conservation of the structurally diverse forest-grassland mosaics in the light of recent land-use and climate change.

In strategic simulation experiments using the process-based model of pasture-woodland ecosystems WoodPaM, we analyzed the relationships among drivers for the formation of mosaic patterns (grazing intensity, climate change) and the resulting landscape properties (tree cover, forest-grassland ecotones, mosaic structure) during the past until today (2000 AD).

The results showed that tree canopy densification following recent climate warming is likely to trigger landscape structural shifts. Medium grazing pressure promoted the development of the full range of pasture-woodland habitats and is therefore confirmed as a management strategy that balances agronomic demands and nature conservation value. Tree cover is rejected as a criteria to monitor pasture-woodland conservation status, because its relationship to landscape structural diversity and to the cover of forest-grassland ecotones did not hold for changing climate.

Our results suggest \“experimental-retrospective\” analysis as a useful tool to test conclusions from expert knowledge.

}, issn = {03043800}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.03.013}, url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0304380016300795}, author = {Peringer, Alexander and Gillet, Fran{\c c}ois and Rosenthal, Gert and Stoicescu, Ioana and P{\u a}tru-Stupariu, Ileana and Stupariu, Mihai-Sorin and Buttler, Alexandre} } @article {4406, title = {Multi-scale feedbacks between tree regeneration traits and herbivore behavior explain the structure of pasture-woodland mosaics}, journal = {Landscape Ecology}, volume = {31}, year = {2016}, month = {Jan-05-2016}, pages = {913 - 927}, abstract = {

The pasture-woodlands of Central Europe are low-intensity grazing systems in which the structural richness of dynamic forest-grassland mosaics is causal for their high biodiversity. Distinct mosaic patterns in Picea abies- and Fagus sylvatica-dominated pasture-woodlands in the Swiss Jura Mountains suggest a strong influence of tree species regeneration ecology on landscape structural properties. At the landscape scale, however, cause-effect relationships are complicated by habitat selectivity of livestock.

}, issn = {0921-2973}, doi = {10.1007/s10980-015-0308-z}, url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10980-015-0308-z}, author = {Peringer, Alexander and Schulze, Kiowa A. and Stupariu, Ileana and Stupariu, Mihai-Sorin and Rosenthal, Gert and Buttler, Alexandre and Gillet, Fran{\c c}ois} } @article {4264, title = {Implementation of marine spatial planning in shellfish aquaculture management: modeling studies in a Norwegian fjord}, journal = {Ecological Applications}, volume = {24}, year = {2014}, pages = {832{\textendash}843}, abstract = {Shellfish carrying capacity is determined by the interaction of a cultured species with its ecosystem, which is strongly influenced by hydrodynamics. Water circulation controls the exchange of matter between farms and the adjacent areas, which in turn establishes the nutrient supply that supports phytoplankton populations. The complexity of water circulation makes necessary the use of hydrodynamic models with detailed spatial resolution in carrying capacity estimations. This detailed spatial resolution also allows for the study of processes that depend on specific spatial arrangements, e.g., the most suitable location to place farms, which is crucial for marine spatial planning, and consequently for decision support systems. In the present study, a fully spatial physical-biogeochemical model has been combined with scenario building and optimization techniques as a proof of concept of the use of ecosystem modeling as an objective tool to inform marine spatial planning. The object of this exercise was to generate objective knowledge based on an ecosystem approach to establish new mussel aquaculture areas in a Norwegian fjord. Scenario building was used to determine the best location of a pump that can be used to bring nutrient-rich deep waters to the euphotic layer, increasing primary production, and consequently, carrying capacity for mussel cultivation. In addition, an optimization tool, parameter estimation (PEST), was applied to the optimal location and mussel standing stock biomass that maximize production, according to a preestablished carrying capacity criterion. Optimization tools allow us to make rational and transparent decisions to solve a well-defined question, decisions that are essential for policy makers. The outcomes of combining ecosystem models with scenario building and optimization facilitate planning based on an ecosystem approach, highlighting the capabilities of ecosystem modeling as a tool for marine spatial planning.}, doi = {10.1890/13-0479.1}, url = {http://www.esajournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1890/13-0479.1}, author = {Ram{\'o}n Filgueira and Jon Grant and {\O}ivind Strand} } @article {4262, title = {Multiscale digital Arabidopsis predicts individual organ and whole-organism growth}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}, year = {2014}, abstract = {Understanding how dynamic molecular networks affect whole-organism physiology, analogous to mapping genotype to phenotype, remains a key challenge in biology. Quantitative models that represent processes at multiple scales and link understanding from several research domains can help to tackle this problem. Such integrated models are more common in crop science and ecophysiology than in the research communities that elucidate molecular networks. Several laboratories have modeled particular aspects of growth in Arabidopsis thaliana, but it was unclear whether these existing models could productively be combined. We test this approach by constructing a multiscale model of Arabidopsis rosette growth. Four existing models were integrated with minimal parameter modification (leaf water content and one flowering parameter used measured data). The resulting framework model links genetic regulation and biochemical dynamics to events at the organ and whole-plant levels, helping to understand the combined effects of endogenous and environmental regulators on Arabidopsis growth. The framework model was validated and tested with metabolic, physiological, and biomass data from two laboratories, for five photoperiods, three accessions, and a transgenic line, highlighting the plasticity of plant growth strategies. The model was extended to include stochastic development. Model simulations gave insight into the developmental control of leaf production and provided a quantitative explanation for the pleiotropic developmental phenotype caused by overexpression of miR156, which was an open question. Modular, multiscale models, assembling knowledge from systems biology to ecophysiology, will help to understand and to engineer plant behavior from the genome to the field.}, issn = {1091-6490}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1410238111}, url = {http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2014/08/27/1410238111.full.pdf+html?sid=66edb45d-8e99-4d84-a072-a47729a65e14}, author = {Chew, Y. H. and Wenden, B. and Flis, A. and Mengin, V. and Taylor, J. and Davey, C. L. and Tindal, C. and Thomas, H. and Ougham, H. J. and de Reffye, P. and Stitt, M. and Williams, M. and Muetzelfeldt, R. and Halliday, K. J. and Millar, A. J.} } @article {4241, title = {Ecosystem modelling for ecosystem-based management of bivalve aquaculture sites in data-poor environment}, journal = {Aquacult Environ Interact}, volume = {4}, year = {2013}, pages = {117-133}, chapter = {117}, abstract = {Although models of carrying capacity have been around for some time, their use in aquaculture management has been limited. This is partially due to the cost involved in generating and testing the models. However, the use of more generic and flexible models could facilitate the implementation of modelling in management. We have built a generic core for coupling biogeochemical and hydrodynamic models using Simile (www.simulistics.com), a visual simulation environment software that is well-suited to accommodate fully spatial models. Specifically, Simile integrates PEST (model-independent parameter estimation, Watermark Numerical Computing, www.pesthomepage.org), an optimization tool that uses the Gauss-Marquardt-Levenberg algorithm and can be used to estimate the value of a parameter, or set of parameters, in order to minimize the discrepancies between the model results and a dataset chosen by the user. The other critical aspect of modelling exercises is the large amount of data necessary to set up, tune and groundtruth the ecosystem model. However, ecoinformatics and improvements in remote sensing procedures have facilitated acquisition of these datasets, even in data-poor environments. In this paper we describe the required datasets and stages of model development necessary to build a biogeochemical model that can be used as a decision-making tool for bivalve aquaculture management in data-poor environments.}, doi = {10.3354/aei00078}, url = {http://www.int-res.com/abstracts/aei/v4/n2/p117-133/}, author = {R. Filgueira and J. Grant and R. Stuart and M. S. Brown} } @inbook {1536, title = {Chapter Seven Integrated Modelling Frameworks for Environmental Assessment and Decision Support}, booktitle = {Developments in Integrated Environmental Assessment}, volume = {3}, year = {2008}, pages = {101-118}, publisher = { Elsevier}, organization = { Elsevier}, chapter = {7}, abstract = {

In this chapter we investigate the motivation behind the development of modelling frameworks that explicitly target the environmental domain. Despite many commercial and industrial-strength frameworks being available, we claim that there is a definite niche for environmental-specific frameworks. We first introduce a general definition of what is an environmental integrated modelling framework, leading to an outline of the requirements for a generic software architecture for such frameworks. This identifies the need for a knowledge layer to support the modelling layer and an experimentation layer to support the execution of models.

The chapter then focuses on the themes of knowledge representation, model management and model execution. We advocate that appropriate knowledge representation and management tools can facilitate model integration and linking. We stress that a model development process adhering to industry standards and good practices, called \“model engineering,\” is to be pursued. We focus on the requirements of the experimental frame, which can ensure transparency and traceability in the execution of simulation scenarios and optimisation problems associated with complex integrated assessment studies.

A promising trend for knowledge representation is the use of ontologies that have the capacity to elicit the meaning of knowledge in a manner that is logical, consistent and understandable by computers and the knowledge worker community. This new path in knowledge-based computing will support retention of institutional knowledge, while putting modelling back in the hands of modellers. Environmental modelling will then become a conceptual activity, focusing on model design rather than model implementation, with code generation being delegated to some degree to ontology-aware tools. In this respect, we envision the whole model lifecycle to change drastically, becoming more of a theoretical activity and less of a coding-intensive, highly engineering-oriented task.

}, keywords = {environmental integrated modelling frameworks, knowledge representation, model engineering, model management, modelling frameworks}, isbn = {9780080568867}, doi = {doi:10.1016/S1574-101X(08)00607-8}, author = {A. E. Rizzoli and G. Leavesley and J. C. Ascough II and R. M. Argent and I. N. Athanasiadis and V. Brilhante and F. H. A. Claeys and O. David and M. Donatelli and P. Gijsbers and D. Havlik and A. Kassahun and P. Krause and N. W. T. Quinn and H. Scholten and R. S. Sojda and F. Villa}, editor = {A. J. Jakeman and A. A. Voinov and A. E. Rizzoli and S. H. Chen} } @proceedings {1560, title = {CONCEPT MAPS FOR COMBINING HARD AND SOFT SYSTEM THINKING IN THE MANAGEMENT OF SOCIO-ECOSYSTEMS}, year = {2008}, url = {http://cmc.ihmc.us/cmc2008papers/cmc2008-p190.pdf}, author = {Franco Salerno and Emanuele Cuccillato and Robert Muetzelfeldt and Francesco Giannino and Birendra Bajracharya and Paolo Caroli and Gaetano Viviano and Anna Staiano and Fabrizio Carten{\`\i}, and Stefano Mazzoleni and Gianni Tartari} } @article {1542, title = {Corrigendum to {\textquotedblleft}It was an artefact not the result: A note on systems dynamic{\textquotedblright} [Environ. Model. Softw. 20 (2005) 1543{\textendash}1548] }, journal = {Environmental Modelling \& Software}, volume = {21}, year = {2006}, month = {05/2006}, pages = {756-758 }, doi = {doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2006.01.003 }, author = {R. Seppelta and O. Richterb} } @book {1583, title = {Realizing Community Futures: A Practical Guide to Harnessing Natural Resources}, year = {2006}, publisher = {EarthScan}, organization = {EarthScan}, abstract = {

Through an easy-to-read narrative style and using real examples from Africa and Asia, this revolutionary book--part argument for the limitless power of human imagination and part practical manual for turning visions into reality--explains how to use a process of participatory modelling\" to structure people\’s learning and understanding of the natural systems they depend upon and how this can lead to better social and environmental outcomes.

}, isbn = {978-1844073849}, url = {http://www.cifor.cgiar.org/realizingfutures/_ref/home/index.htm}, author = {Jerry Vanclay and Ravi Prabhu and Fergus Sinclair} } @article {1541, title = {{\textquotedblleft}It was an artefact not the result{\textquotedblright}: A note on systems dynamic model development tools}, journal = {Environmental Modelling \& Software}, volume = {20}, year = {2005}, note = {

07 October: Integration methods test model added to the model catalogue, Lotka-Volterra predator-prey model (Seppelt and Richter, 2005).
The model is included in response to the call by Seppelt and Richter (2005) for evaluation of the numerical methods of simulation modelling tools. Such evaluation is to be welcomed as it is required to provide confidence in results, though of course, the model itself must also represent the target system adequately for confidence. If either the model representation or numerical methods are flawed, the results will be flawed. Unfortunately, Seppelt and Richter (2005) report aberrant behaviour of Simile 3.2 though neither the authors nor we can reproduce the flawed behaviour. A corrigendum has been published.

}, month = {12/2005}, pages = {1543-1548}, abstract = {

Environmental modelling is done more and more by practising ecologists rather than computer scientists or mathematicians. This is because there is a broad spectrum of development tools available that allows graphical coding of complex models of dynamic systems and help to abstract from the mathematical issues of the modelled system and the related numerical problems for estimating solutions. In this contribution, we study how different modelling tools treat a test system, a highly non-linear predator\–prey model, and how the numerical solutions vary. We can show that solutions (a) differ if different development tools are chosen but the same numerical procedure is selected; (b) depend on undocumented implementation details; (c) vary even for the same tool but for different versions; and (d) are generated but with no notifications on numerical problems even if these could be identified. We conclude that improved documentation of numeric methods used in the modelling software is essential to make sure that process based models formulated in terms of these modelling packages do not become \“black box\” models due to uncertainty in integration methods.

}, keywords = {Lotka-Volterra equation; Predator-prey modelling, MATEMATICA, MATLAB, Model analysis, MODELMAKER, Numerical ODE solvers, Simile, STELLA, Stiff systems}, doi = {doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2004.12.004 }, author = {R. Seppelt and O. Richter} }