02293nas a2200169 4500008004100000245013100041210006900172260001600241300001100257490000700268520152300275100002001798700002801818700003001846700002401876856022301900 2019 eng d00aLand Use Guidelines to Maintain Habitat Diversity of Wood- Pastures in the Southern Carpathians Under Projected Climate Change0 aLand Use Guidelines to Maintain Habitat Diversity of Wood Pastur cOct-09-2019 a1 - 240 v743 a

The biodiversity of wood-pastures depends on a balance between human interference and natural vegetation succession, which however is undergoing changes driven by socio-economic factors and climate change. Widely spread throughout Europe, wood-pastures were subject to either intensification or abandonment, leading to habitat segregation and loss. This is currently the fate of large Romanian remnant woodpastures and climate warming further complicates management adaptation.
In a series of simulation experiments, we compared the long-term effects of different land use and climate change scenarios on the habitat diversity of a wood-pasture in the Southern Carpathians (Fundata village, Romania). We tested livestock densities according to management guidelines, complemented with shrub-cutting in order to maintain a structurally-diverse landscape with high habitat values in the light of climate change. We found that significant losses of open pastureland and inclusion into forest, as well as landscape structural simplification and loss of complex habitats can be expected from climate warming, with more severe consequences in a hotter climate perspective. We arguefor the re-establishment of the traditional multi-use of wood-pastures at optimum livestock densities in combination with low-intensity shrubcutting, because our study demonstrated that traditional practices offer a balanced compromise between agricultural use and maintaining habitat mosaics that are robust to climate change.

1 aStoicescu, Iona1 aPătru-Stupariu, Ileana1 aHossu, Constantina, Alina1 aPeringer, Alexander uhttps://www.landscape-online.org/index.php/lo/article/view/LO.201974https://www.landscape-online.org/index.php/lo/article/download/LO.201974/87https://www.landscape-online.org/index.php/lo/article/download/LO.201974/8702910nas a2200145 4500008004100000245008300041210006900124260001200193300001000205490000700215520246300222100001602685700002702701856003602728 2019 eng d00aLinking Spatial and Temporal Modeling: A Case Study from the Eastern Pamir, TJ0 aLinking Spatial and Temporal Modeling A Case Study from the East c10/2019 a29-410 v153 a

The Eastern Pamir of Tajikistan is a remote high mountain region located in the east of Tajikistan. Today, a great share of the Eastern Pamir’s local energy demand is satisfied by dwarf shrubs (Krascheninnikovia ceratoides and Artemisia spp.) and animal manure. Besides of their energetic potential, dwarf shrubs are an important nutrient source for local livestock. It is assumed that overuse of local dwarf shrub stands leads to a degradation of pastures. With decreasing pasture quality, potentially, less livestock can be kept by locals. Besides of the economic losses associated with a decrease in livestock numbers, yields of manure also decline. In order to compensate the missing manure yields, locals may harvest even more dwarf shrubs. Thus, potentially a self-reinforcing functional chain exists in this system. BRECKLE AND WUCHERER (2006) refer to the degradation of pasturelands due to excessive dwarf shrub harvest in the Pamir Mountains as teresken syndrome. In a field study, we identified typical current energy carrier usage patterns in the village of Alichur, the second largest settlement in the Eastern Pamir. We then used a System Dynamics and Geographical Information Systems combining hybrid approach to analyze the energy system of Alichur and we modeled two scenarios of the system: one pessimistic in terms of dwarf shrub growth and one optimistic. Both scenarios show that in the short to medium term a collapse of the energy system of Alichur is unlikely to happen. The optimistic scenario indicates that resource consumption currently is sustainable in terms of pasture quality and dwarf shrub balance. The assumed self-reinforcing functional chain could not be confirmed. After all, the model provides strong indications that the teresken syndrome does not apply for Alichur. In addition to these findings, the case study shows, that combining SD and GIS in one model, allows for a conceptual understanding of the modeled system (mainly SD part), mass-balance simulations (SD and GIS parts) and visualization of model results (GIS part). Thereby, in addition to the case study results, this work demonstrates that System Dynamics and Geographical Information Systems combining hybrid approaches are a powerful tool for case study analysis, model simulation and result presentation. The approach is able to clarify structural assumption on the regional Social-Ecological-System and to support management decision.

1 aHohberg, G.1 aRaumer, H., G. Schwarz u//www.simulistics.com/node/439600937nas a2200205 4500008004100000022001400041245014800055210006900203260001600272300001600288490000800304100002200312700002200334700002300356700001900379700002200398700002900420700002300449856025900472 2018 eng d a0378-190900aThe effect of environmental conditions on Atlantic salmon smolts’ (Salmo salar) bioenergetic requirements and migration through an inland sea0 aeffect of environmental conditions on Atlantic salmon smolts Sal cJan-10-2018 a1467 - 14820 v1011 aStrople, Leah, C.1 aFilgueira, Ramón1 aHatcher, Bruce, G.1 aDenny, Shelley1 aBordeleau, Xavier1 aWhoriskey, Frederick, G.1 aCrossin, Glenn, T. uhttp://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10641-018-0792-5http://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10641-018-0792-5.pdfhttp://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10641-018-0792-5/fulltext.htmlhttp://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10641-018-0792-5.pdf01701nas a2200169 4500008004100000022001300041245008100054210006900135260001600204300001400220490000700234520098900241100002301230700002201253700002301275856023301298 2017 eng d a1364815200aAn integrated model to evaluate water-energy-food nexus at a household scale0 aintegrated model to evaluate waterenergyfood nexus at a househol cJan-07-2017 a366 - 3800 v933 a

To achieve a sustainable supply and effectively manage water, energy and food (WEF) demand, interactions between WEF need to be understood. This study developed an integrated model, capturing the interactions between WEF at end-use level at a household scale. The model is based on a survey of 419 households conducted to investigate WEF over winter and summer for the city of Duhok, Iraq. A bottom-up approach was used to develop this system dynamics-based model. The model estimates WEF demand and the generated organic waste and wastewater quantities. It also investigates the impact of change in user behaviour, diet, income, family size and climate.

The simulation results show a good agreement with the historical data. Using the model, the impact of Global Scenario Group (GSG) scenarios was investigated. The results suggest that the ‘fortress world’ scenario (an authoritarian response to the threat of breakdown) had the highest impact on WEF.

1 aHussien, Wa'el, A.1 aMemon, Fayyaz, A.1 aSavić, Dragan, A. uhttps://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1364815216306594https://api.elsevier.com/content/article/PII:S1364815216306594?httpAccept=text/xmlhttps://api.elsevier.com/content/article/PII:S1364815216306594?httpAccept=text/plain02611nas a2200277 4500008003900000022001400039245008700053210006900140520178500209100001401994700001402008700001202022700001402034700001402048700001502062700001402077700001402091700001602105700001402121700001302135700001602148700002002164700001802184700001602202856011502218 2014 d a1091-649000aMultiscale digital Arabidopsis predicts individual organ and whole-organism growth0 aMultiscale digital Arabidopsis predicts individual organ and who3 aUnderstanding how dynamic molecular networks affect whole-organism physiology, analogous to mapping genotype to phenotype, remains a key challenge in biology. Quantitative models that represent processes at multiple scales and link understanding from several research domains can help to tackle this problem. Such integrated models are more common in crop science and ecophysiology than in the research communities that elucidate molecular networks. Several laboratories have modeled particular aspects of growth in Arabidopsis thaliana, but it was unclear whether these existing models could productively be combined. We test this approach by constructing a multiscale model of Arabidopsis rosette growth. Four existing models were integrated with minimal parameter modification (leaf water content and one flowering parameter used measured data). The resulting framework model links genetic regulation and biochemical dynamics to events at the organ and whole-plant levels, helping to understand the combined effects of endogenous and environmental regulators on Arabidopsis growth. The framework model was validated and tested with metabolic, physiological, and biomass data from two laboratories, for five photoperiods, three accessions, and a transgenic line, highlighting the plasticity of plant growth strategies. The model was extended to include stochastic development. Model simulations gave insight into the developmental control of leaf production and provided a quantitative explanation for the pleiotropic developmental phenotype caused by overexpression of miR156, which was an open question. Modular, multiscale models, assembling knowledge from systems biology to ecophysiology, will help to understand and to engineer plant behavior from the genome to the field.1 aChew, Y H1 aWenden, B1 aFlis, A1 aMengin, V1 aTaylor, J1 aDavey, C L1 aTindal, C1 aThomas, H1 aOugham, H J1 aReffye, P1 aStitt, M1 aWilliams, M1 aMuetzelfeldt, R1 aHalliday, K J1 aMillar, A J uhttp://www.pnas.org/content/early/2014/08/27/1410238111.full.pdf+html?sid=66edb45d-8e99-4d84-a072-a47729a65e1400386nas a2200085 4500008003900000245009800039210007000137100001900207856007400226 2013 d00aEin Ansatz zur räumlich- dynamischen Modellierung am Beispiel der Tereskenernte im Ostpamir 0 aEin Ansatz zur räumlich dynamischen Modellierung am Beispiel der1 aHOHBERG, Georg uhttp://gispoint.de/fileadmin/user_upload/paper_gis_open/537533033.pdf00792nas a2200181 4500008004100000022001300041245013900054210006900193260001600262300001200278490001000290100001300300700001400313700001600327700001400343700002000357856023300377 2012 eng d a1364815200aUncovering land-use dynamics driven by human decision-making – A combined model approach using cellular automata and system dynamics0 aUncovering landuse dynamics driven by human decisionmaking A com cJan-01-2012 a71 - 820 v27-281 aLauf, S.1 aHaase, D.1 aHostert, P.1 aLakes, T.1 aKleinschmit, B. uhttps://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1364815211002039https://api.elsevier.com/content/article/PII:S1364815211002039?httpAccept=text/xmlhttps://api.elsevier.com/content/article/PII:S1364815211002039?httpAccept=text/plain00435nas a2200085 4500008003900000245009300039210006900132110003100201856011700232 2011 d00aAn assessment of the Economics, Implementation and Modelling of Universal MRSA Screening0 aassessment of the Economics Implementation and Modelling of Univ1 aHealth Protection Scotland uhttp://www.documents.hps.scot.nhs.uk/hai/mrsa-screening/pathfinder-programme/mrsa-pathfinder-vol2-2011-02-23.pdf03363nas a2200445 4500008003900000020001800039245010000057210006900157260001400226300001200240490000600252520204200258653005002300653002902350653002202379653002102401653002502422100001702447700001702464700002102481700001602502700002202518700001702540700001802557700001302575700001702588700001602605700001402621700001602635700001402651700001702665700001602682700001502698700001302713700001702726700001602743700001702759700001402776856012702790 2008 d a978008056886700aChapter Seven Integrated Modelling Frameworks for Environmental Assessment and Decision Support0 aChapter Seven Integrated Modelling Frameworks for Environmental  b Elsevier a101-1180 v33 a

In this chapter we investigate the motivation behind the development of modelling frameworks that explicitly target the environmental domain. Despite many commercial and industrial-strength frameworks being available, we claim that there is a definite niche for environmental-specific frameworks. We first introduce a general definition of what is an environmental integrated modelling framework, leading to an outline of the requirements for a generic software architecture for such frameworks. This identifies the need for a knowledge layer to support the modelling layer and an experimentation layer to support the execution of models.

The chapter then focuses on the themes of knowledge representation, model management and model execution. We advocate that appropriate knowledge representation and management tools can facilitate model integration and linking. We stress that a model development process adhering to industry standards and good practices, called “model engineering,” is to be pursued. We focus on the requirements of the experimental frame, which can ensure transparency and traceability in the execution of simulation scenarios and optimisation problems associated with complex integrated assessment studies.

A promising trend for knowledge representation is the use of ontologies that have the capacity to elicit the meaning of knowledge in a manner that is logical, consistent and understandable by computers and the knowledge worker community. This new path in knowledge-based computing will support retention of institutional knowledge, while putting modelling back in the hands of modellers. Environmental modelling will then become a conceptual activity, focusing on model design rather than model implementation, with code generation being delegated to some degree to ontology-aware tools. In this respect, we envision the whole model lifecycle to change drastically, becoming more of a theoretical activity and less of a coding-intensive, highly engineering-oriented task.

10aenvironmental integrated modelling frameworks10aknowledge representation10amodel engineering10amodel management10amodelling frameworks1 aRizzoli, A E1 aLeavesley, G1 aII, Ascough, J C1 aArgent, R M1 aAthanasiadis, I N1 aBrilhante, V1 aClaeys, F H A1 aDavid, O1 aDonatelli, M1 aGijsbers, P1 aHavlik, D1 aKassahun, A1 aKrause, P1 aQuinn, N W T1 aScholten, H1 aSojda, R S1 aVilla, F1 aJakeman, A J1 aVoinov, A A1 aRizzoli, A E1 aChen, S H u//www.simulistics.com/publications/chapter-seven-integrated-modelling-frameworks-environmental-assessment-and-decision-sup01972nas a2200229 4500008003900000245005400039210005400093260001200147300001200159490000700171520127800178653003601456653001801492653001601510653001501526100002301541700002401564700002901588700002201617700001701639856008601656 2008 d00aSemantic links in integrated modelling frameworks0 aSemantic links in integrated modelling frameworks c07/2008 a412-4230 v783 a

It is commonly accepted that modelling frameworks offer a powerful tool for modellers, researchers and decision makers, since they allow the management, re-use and integration of mathematical models from various disciplines and at different spatial and temporal scales. However, the actual re-usability of models depends on a number of factors such as the accessibility of the source code, the compatibility of different binary platforms, and often it is left to the modellers own discipline and responsibility to structure a complex model in such a way that it is decomposed in smaller re-usable sub-components. What reusable and interchangeable means is also somewhat vague; although several approaches to build modelling frameworks have been developed, little attention has been dedicated to the intrinsic re-usability of components, in particular between different modelling frameworks. In this paper, we focus on how models can be linked together to build complex integrated models. We stress that even if a model component interface is clear and reusable from a software standpoint, this is not a sufficient condition for reusing a component across different integrated modelling frameworks. This reveals the need for adding rich semantics in model interfaces.

10aIntegrated modelling frameworks10aModel linking10aModel reuse10aOntologies1 aRizzoli, Andrea, E1 aDonatelli, Marcello1 aAthanasiadis, Ioannis, N1 aVilla, Ferdinando1 aHuber, David u//www.simulistics.com/publications/semantic-links-integrated-modelling-frameworks00781nas a2200241 4500008003900000022001000039245010700049210006900156100001500225700001600240700001300256700001600269700001400285700001300299700001300312700001800325700001600343700001600359700002100375700001200396700001400408856011700422 2007 d aHTA 900aThe clinical and cost effectiveness of screening for meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA)0 aclinical and cost effectiveness of screening for meticillinresis1 aK, Ritchie1 aI, Bradbury1 aJ, Craig1 aJ, Eastgate1 aL, Foster1 aH, Kohli1 aK, Iqbal1 aK, MacPherson1 aT, McCarthy1 aH, McIntosh1 aE, Nic Lochlainn1 aM, Reid1 aJ, Taylor uhttp://www.healthcareimprovementscotland.org/his/idoc.ashx?docid=4cd58ffa-afdb-45bb-b0d5-22782b3f327d&version=-1