02910nas a2200145 4500008004100000245008300041210006900124260001200193300001000205490000700215520246300222100001602685700002702701856003602728 2019 eng d00aLinking Spatial and Temporal Modeling: A Case Study from the Eastern Pamir, TJ0 aLinking Spatial and Temporal Modeling A Case Study from the East c10/2019 a29-410 v153 a

The Eastern Pamir of Tajikistan is a remote high mountain region located in the east of Tajikistan. Today, a great share of the Eastern Pamir’s local energy demand is satisfied by dwarf shrubs (Krascheninnikovia ceratoides and Artemisia spp.) and animal manure. Besides of their energetic potential, dwarf shrubs are an important nutrient source for local livestock. It is assumed that overuse of local dwarf shrub stands leads to a degradation of pastures. With decreasing pasture quality, potentially, less livestock can be kept by locals. Besides of the economic losses associated with a decrease in livestock numbers, yields of manure also decline. In order to compensate the missing manure yields, locals may harvest even more dwarf shrubs. Thus, potentially a self-reinforcing functional chain exists in this system. BRECKLE AND WUCHERER (2006) refer to the degradation of pasturelands due to excessive dwarf shrub harvest in the Pamir Mountains as teresken syndrome. In a field study, we identified typical current energy carrier usage patterns in the village of Alichur, the second largest settlement in the Eastern Pamir. We then used a System Dynamics and Geographical Information Systems combining hybrid approach to analyze the energy system of Alichur and we modeled two scenarios of the system: one pessimistic in terms of dwarf shrub growth and one optimistic. Both scenarios show that in the short to medium term a collapse of the energy system of Alichur is unlikely to happen. The optimistic scenario indicates that resource consumption currently is sustainable in terms of pasture quality and dwarf shrub balance. The assumed self-reinforcing functional chain could not be confirmed. After all, the model provides strong indications that the teresken syndrome does not apply for Alichur. In addition to these findings, the case study shows, that combining SD and GIS in one model, allows for a conceptual understanding of the modeled system (mainly SD part), mass-balance simulations (SD and GIS parts) and visualization of model results (GIS part). Thereby, in addition to the case study results, this work demonstrates that System Dynamics and Geographical Information Systems combining hybrid approaches are a powerful tool for case study analysis, model simulation and result presentation. The approach is able to clarify structural assumption on the regional Social-Ecological-System and to support management decision.

1 aHohberg, G.1 aRaumer, H., G. Schwarz u//www.simulistics.com/node/439600630nas a2200181 4500008004100000022001300041245014500054210006900199260001600268300001400284490000800298100002200306700002200328700002100350700002100371700002000392856003600412 2019 eng d a0959652600aMussels or tunicates: That is the question. Evaluating efficient and sustainable resource use by low-trophic species in aquaculture settings0 aMussels or tunicates That is the question Evaluating efficient a cJan-09-2019 a132 - 1430 v2311 aFilgueira, Ramón1 aStrople, Leah, C.1 aStrohmeier, Tore1 aRastrick, Samuel1 aStrand, Øivind u//www.simulistics.com/node/439002755nas a2200169 4500008004100000022001300041245010700054210006900161260001600230300001200246490000800258520218000266100002802446700002002474700002402494856006702518 2018 eng d a0304380000aIntermediate foraging large herbivores maintain semi-open habitats in wilderness landscape simulations0 aIntermediate foraging large herbivores maintain semiopen habitat cJan-07-2018 a10 - 210 v3793 a

In the context of the rewilding Europe debate, the German national strategy on biodiversity aims to dedicate two percent of the German state area to wilderness development until 2020. Many of these potential large wilderness reserves harbor open habitats that require protection according to the Flora-Fauna-Habitat-directive of the European Union. As forests prevail in potential natural vegetation, research is required, to which extent wild large herbivores and natural disturbances may create semi-open landscape patterns in the long-term. We used the spatially explicit process-based model of pasture-woodland ecosystem dynamics WoodPaM, to analyze the long-term interactions between intermediate foraging large wild herbivores and vegetation dynamics in edaphically heterogeneous forest-grassland mosaic landscapes. We newly implemented a routine for intermediate foraging herbivores. We determined herbivore impact on vegetation from the quantitative balance between the demand and supply of herbaceous forage and woody browse. In abstract landscapes that represent the conditions in the established German wilderness area "Döberitzer Heide", we simulated potential future landscape dynamics on open land, in forest and along forest edges with and without intermediate foraging large herbivores and for a climate change scenario. In our simulations the currently open landscape was conserved and even more the opening of current oak and beech forest was promoted. Canopy thinning and patch-mosaics of oak, birch, poplar and pine stands increased the overall nature conservation value in the long-term. To the contrary, open habitats were lost in simulations without herbivores. Moreover, our simulations suggested that intermediate foraging herbivores are especially suitable to maintain semi-open landscapes in wilderness areas, because (i) no additional winter forage was required, the natural availability of browse was sufficient. (ii) Their grazing maintained open land and their browsing thinned tree canopies even on poor sites that were unattractive for foraging. Here, habitat was maintained for threatened species from dry grasslands.

1 aSchulze, Kiowa, Alraune1 aRosenthal, Gert1 aPeringer, Alexander uhttps://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S030438001830113302835nas a2200217 4500008004100000022001300041245010400054210006900158260001600227300001400243490000800257520195300265100002402218700002302242700002202265700002802287700002302315700002602338700002002364856023302384 2017 eng d a0304380000aDisturbance-grazer-vegetation interactions maintain habitat diversity in mountain pasture-woodlands0 aDisturbancegrazervegetation interactions maintain habitat divers cJan-09-2017 a301 - 3100 v3593 a

Low-intensity livestock grazing is a widespread management tool in order to maintain habitat diversity in mountain pasture-woodlands for nature conservation purposes. Historical photographs indicate that forest disturbance significantly contributed to forest-grassland mosaic pattern formation. Disturbance-grazer interactions are however poorly understood and the effects of logging or windthrow are rarely considered in management plans. Moreover, disturbance-grazer interactions are crucial for the maintenance of open habitats in the upcoming “rewilding” approach of nature conservation. We aimed to understand the effects of forest gap creation by the breakdown of senile trees or by single-tree cutting and of large forest openings by windthrow or logging on mosaic pattern formation in pasture-woodlands that were grazed by cattle and dominated by tree species with distinct regeneration ecology (Picea abies vs. Fagus sylvatica). We used the process-based model of pasture-woodland vegetation dynamics WoodPaM and newly implemented a forest disturbance routine. We simulated disturbance and grazing scenarios in an artificial mountain landscape and analyzed mosaic patterns with landscape metrics. We found that grazing in absence of disturbance promoted simply structured mosaics that were preconditioned by topography. Only large-scale forest disturbance disrupted this pattern and maintained the historical heterogeneous distribution of grassland communities across all habitat conditions (especially species-rich mountain grasslands on poor soil). This prerequisite is stronger in pasture-woodlands where the ecology of the dominant tree species promotes forest-grassland segregation (F. sylvatica in our case) and less in naturally thin-canopy mountain forest close to the tree line (P. abies). In wilderness areas, the very low density of grazers may limit the maintenance of open habitats regardless disturbance.

1 aPeringer, Alexander1 aButtler, Alexandre1 aGillet, François1 aPătru-Stupariu, Ileana1 aSchulze, Kiowa, A.1 aStupariu, Mihai-Sorin1 aRosenthal, Gert uhttps://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S030438001730100Xhttps://api.elsevier.com/content/article/PII:S030438001730100X?httpAccept=text/xmlhttps://api.elsevier.com/content/article/PII:S030438001730100X?httpAccept=text/plain02521nas a2200217 4500008004100000022001300041245013700054210006900191260001600260300001200276490000800288520177600296100002402072700002202096700002002118700002102138700002802159700002602187700002302213856006702236 2016 eng d a0304380000aLandscape-scale simulation experiments test Romanian and Swiss management guidelines for mountain pasture-woodland habitat diversity0 aLandscapescale simulation experiments test Romanian and Swiss ma cJan-06-2016 a41 - 490 v3303 a

Distinct guidelines have been proposed in Romania and Switzerland for the management of pasture-woodlands that either focused on the regulation of grazing pressure (Romanian production perspective) or overall tree cover (Swiss conservation perspective). However, the landscape structural diversity and the cover of forest-grassland ecotones, which are both crucial for nature conservation value, were not explicitly considered.

We aimed to compare the country-specific management guidelines regarding their efficiency for the conservation of the structurally diverse forest-grassland mosaics in the light of recent land-use and climate change.

In strategic simulation experiments using the process-based model of pasture-woodland ecosystems WoodPaM, we analyzed the relationships among drivers for the formation of mosaic patterns (grazing intensity, climate change) and the resulting landscape properties (tree cover, forest-grassland ecotones, mosaic structure) during the past until today (2000 AD).

The results showed that tree canopy densification following recent climate warming is likely to trigger landscape structural shifts. Medium grazing pressure promoted the development of the full range of pasture-woodland habitats and is therefore confirmed as a management strategy that balances agronomic demands and nature conservation value. Tree cover is rejected as a criteria to monitor pasture-woodland conservation status, because its relationship to landscape structural diversity and to the cover of forest-grassland ecotones did not hold for changing climate.

Our results suggest “experimental-retrospective” analysis as a useful tool to test conclusions from expert knowledge.

1 aPeringer, Alexander1 aGillet, François1 aRosenthal, Gert1 aStoicescu, Ioana1 aPătru-Stupariu, Ileana1 aStupariu, Mihai-Sorin1 aButtler, Alexandre uhttps://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S030438001630079501250nas a2200217 4500008004100000022001400041245013200055210006900187260001600256300001400272490000700286520052500293100002400818700002300842700002100865700002600886700002000912700002300932700002200955856005500977 2016 eng d a0921-297300aMulti-scale feedbacks between tree regeneration traits and herbivore behavior explain the structure of pasture-woodland mosaics0 aMultiscale feedbacks between tree regeneration traits and herbiv cJan-05-2016 a913 - 9270 v313 a

The pasture-woodlands of Central Europe are low-intensity grazing systems in which the structural richness of dynamic forest-grassland mosaics is causal for their high biodiversity. Distinct mosaic patterns in Picea abies- and Fagus sylvatica-dominated pasture-woodlands in the Swiss Jura Mountains suggest a strong influence of tree species regeneration ecology on landscape structural properties. At the landscape scale, however, cause-effect relationships are complicated by habitat selectivity of livestock.

1 aPeringer, Alexander1 aSchulze, Kiowa, A.1 aStupariu, Ileana1 aStupariu, Mihai-Sorin1 aRosenthal, Gert1 aButtler, Alexandre1 aGillet, François uhttp://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10980-015-0308-z02003nas a2200181 4500008003900000022001300039245013200052210006900184260001200253300001200265490000700277520134100284100002001625700001501645700001701660700001701677856012701694 2015 d a2212041600aThe Multiscale Integrated Model of Ecosystem Services (MIMES): Simulating the interactions of coupled human and natural systems0 aMultiscale Integrated Model of Ecosystem Services MIMES Simulati c04/2015 a30 - 410 v123 aIn coupled human and natural systems ecosystem services form the link between ecosystem function and what humans want and need from their surroundings. Interactions between natural and human components are bidirectional and define the dynamics of the total system. Here we describe the MIMES, an analytical framework designed to assess the dynamics associated with ecosystem service function and human activities. MIMES integrate diverse types of knowledge and elucidate how benefits from ecosystem services are gained and lost. In MIMES, users formalize how materials are transformed between natural, human, built, and social capitals. This information is synthesized within a systems model to forecast ecosystem services and human-use dynamics under alternative scenarios. The MIMES requires that multiple ecological and human dynamics be specified, and that outputs may be understood through different temporal and spatial lenses to assess the effects of different actions in the short and long term and at different spatial scales. Here we describe how MIMES methodologies were developed in association with three case studies: a global application, a watershed model, and a marine application. We discuss the advantages and disadvantage of the MIMES approach and compare it to other broadly used ecosystem service assessment tools.1 aBoumans, Roelof1 aRoman, Joe1 aAltman, Irit1 aKaufman, Les u//www.simulistics.com/publications/multiscale-integrated-model-ecosystem-services-mimes-simulating-interactions-coupled-hu02611nas a2200277 4500008003900000022001400039245008700053210006900140520178500209100001401994700001402008700001202022700001402034700001402048700001502062700001402077700001402091700001602105700001402121700001302135700001602148700002002164700001802184700001602202856011502218 2014 d a1091-649000aMultiscale digital Arabidopsis predicts individual organ and whole-organism growth0 aMultiscale digital Arabidopsis predicts individual organ and who3 aUnderstanding how dynamic molecular networks affect whole-organism physiology, analogous to mapping genotype to phenotype, remains a key challenge in biology. Quantitative models that represent processes at multiple scales and link understanding from several research domains can help to tackle this problem. Such integrated models are more common in crop science and ecophysiology than in the research communities that elucidate molecular networks. Several laboratories have modeled particular aspects of growth in Arabidopsis thaliana, but it was unclear whether these existing models could productively be combined. We test this approach by constructing a multiscale model of Arabidopsis rosette growth. Four existing models were integrated with minimal parameter modification (leaf water content and one flowering parameter used measured data). The resulting framework model links genetic regulation and biochemical dynamics to events at the organ and whole-plant levels, helping to understand the combined effects of endogenous and environmental regulators on Arabidopsis growth. The framework model was validated and tested with metabolic, physiological, and biomass data from two laboratories, for five photoperiods, three accessions, and a transgenic line, highlighting the plasticity of plant growth strategies. The model was extended to include stochastic development. Model simulations gave insight into the developmental control of leaf production and provided a quantitative explanation for the pleiotropic developmental phenotype caused by overexpression of miR156, which was an open question. Modular, multiscale models, assembling knowledge from systems biology to ecophysiology, will help to understand and to engineer plant behavior from the genome to the field.1 aChew, Y H1 aWenden, B1 aFlis, A1 aMengin, V1 aTaylor, J1 aDavey, C L1 aTindal, C1 aThomas, H1 aOugham, H J1 aReffye, P1 aStitt, M1 aWilliams, M1 aMuetzelfeldt, R1 aHalliday, K J1 aMillar, A J uhttp://www.pnas.org/content/early/2014/08/27/1410238111.full.pdf+html?sid=66edb45d-8e99-4d84-a072-a47729a65e1400675nas a2200145 4500008004100000022001300041245009300054210006900147260001600216300001100232490000800243100002500251700002000276856023300296 2011 eng d a0022169400aSpatiotemporal dynamics of landscape pattern and hydrologic process in watershed systems0 aSpatiotemporal dynamics of landscape pattern and hydrologic proc cJan-06-2011 a1 - 120 v4041 aRandhir, Timothy, O.1 aTsvetkova, Olga uhttps://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0022169411001880https://api.elsevier.com/content/article/PII:S0022169411001880?httpAccept=text/xmlhttps://api.elsevier.com/content/article/PII:S0022169411001880?httpAccept=text/plain03363nas a2200445 4500008003900000020001800039245010000057210006900157260001400226300001200240490000600252520204200258653005002300653002902350653002202379653002102401653002502422100001702447700001702464700002102481700001602502700002202518700001702540700001802557700001302575700001702588700001602605700001402621700001602635700001402651700001702665700001602682700001502698700001302713700001702726700001602743700001702759700001402776856012702790 2008 d a978008056886700aChapter Seven Integrated Modelling Frameworks for Environmental Assessment and Decision Support0 aChapter Seven Integrated Modelling Frameworks for Environmental  b Elsevier a101-1180 v33 a

In this chapter we investigate the motivation behind the development of modelling frameworks that explicitly target the environmental domain. Despite many commercial and industrial-strength frameworks being available, we claim that there is a definite niche for environmental-specific frameworks. We first introduce a general definition of what is an environmental integrated modelling framework, leading to an outline of the requirements for a generic software architecture for such frameworks. This identifies the need for a knowledge layer to support the modelling layer and an experimentation layer to support the execution of models.

The chapter then focuses on the themes of knowledge representation, model management and model execution. We advocate that appropriate knowledge representation and management tools can facilitate model integration and linking. We stress that a model development process adhering to industry standards and good practices, called “model engineering,” is to be pursued. We focus on the requirements of the experimental frame, which can ensure transparency and traceability in the execution of simulation scenarios and optimisation problems associated with complex integrated assessment studies.

A promising trend for knowledge representation is the use of ontologies that have the capacity to elicit the meaning of knowledge in a manner that is logical, consistent and understandable by computers and the knowledge worker community. This new path in knowledge-based computing will support retention of institutional knowledge, while putting modelling back in the hands of modellers. Environmental modelling will then become a conceptual activity, focusing on model design rather than model implementation, with code generation being delegated to some degree to ontology-aware tools. In this respect, we envision the whole model lifecycle to change drastically, becoming more of a theoretical activity and less of a coding-intensive, highly engineering-oriented task.

10aenvironmental integrated modelling frameworks10aknowledge representation10amodel engineering10amodel management10amodelling frameworks1 aRizzoli, A E1 aLeavesley, G1 aII, Ascough, J C1 aArgent, R M1 aAthanasiadis, I N1 aBrilhante, V1 aClaeys, F H A1 aDavid, O1 aDonatelli, M1 aGijsbers, P1 aHavlik, D1 aKassahun, A1 aKrause, P1 aQuinn, N W T1 aScholten, H1 aSojda, R S1 aVilla, F1 aJakeman, A J1 aVoinov, A A1 aRizzoli, A E1 aChen, S H u//www.simulistics.com/publications/chapter-seven-integrated-modelling-frameworks-environmental-assessment-and-decision-sup01794nas a2200229 4500008003900000245012200039210006900161260001200230300001300242490000700255520108800262653001101350653001401361653001601375653001501391653002101406653001701427100002101444700002201465700002101487856005601508 2008 d00aThe effect of vegetation on pesticide dissipation from ponded treatment wetlands: Quantification using a simple model0 aeffect of vegetation on pesticide dissipation from ponded treatm c07/2008 a999-10050 v723 a

Field data shows that plants accelerate pesticide dissipation from aquatic systems by increasing sedimentation, biofilm contact and photolysis. In this study, a graphical model was constructed and calibrated with site-specific and supplementary data to describe the loss of two pesticides, endosulfan and fluometuron, from a vegetated and a non-vegetated pond. In the model, the major processes responsible for endosulfan dissipation were alkaline hydrolysis and sedimentation, with the former process being reduced by vegetation and the latter enhanced. Fluometuron dissipation resulted primarily from biofilm reaction and photolysis, both of which were increased by vegetation. Here, greater photolysis under vegetation arose from faster sedimentation and increased light penetration, despite shading. Management options for employing constructed wetlands to polish pesticide-contaminated agricultural runoff are discussed. The lack of easily fulfilled sub-models and data describing the effect of aquatic vegetation on water chemistry and sedimentation is also highlighted.

10aCotton10aHerbicide10aInsecticide10aMacrophyte10aPhytoremediation10aRunoff water1 aRose, Michael, T1 aCrossan, Angus, N1 aKennedy, Ivan, R uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chemosphere.2008.04.05901972nas a2200229 4500008003900000245005400039210005400093260001200147300001200159490000700171520127800178653003601456653001801492653001601510653001501526100002301541700002401564700002901588700002201617700001701639856008601656 2008 d00aSemantic links in integrated modelling frameworks0 aSemantic links in integrated modelling frameworks c07/2008 a412-4230 v783 a

It is commonly accepted that modelling frameworks offer a powerful tool for modellers, researchers and decision makers, since they allow the management, re-use and integration of mathematical models from various disciplines and at different spatial and temporal scales. However, the actual re-usability of models depends on a number of factors such as the accessibility of the source code, the compatibility of different binary platforms, and often it is left to the modellers own discipline and responsibility to structure a complex model in such a way that it is decomposed in smaller re-usable sub-components. What reusable and interchangeable means is also somewhat vague; although several approaches to build modelling frameworks have been developed, little attention has been dedicated to the intrinsic re-usability of components, in particular between different modelling frameworks. In this paper, we focus on how models can be linked together to build complex integrated models. We stress that even if a model component interface is clear and reusable from a software standpoint, this is not a sufficient condition for reusing a component across different integrated modelling frameworks. This reveals the need for adding rich semantics in model interfaces.

10aIntegrated modelling frameworks10aModel linking10aModel reuse10aOntologies1 aRizzoli, Andrea, E1 aDonatelli, Marcello1 aAthanasiadis, Ioannis, N1 aVilla, Ferdinando1 aHuber, David u//www.simulistics.com/publications/semantic-links-integrated-modelling-frameworks00567nas a2200133 4500008003900000245013400039210006900173260001200242300001300254490000700267100001600274700001600290856012700306 2006 d00aCorrigendum to “It was an artefact not the result: A note on systems dynamic” [Environ. Model. Softw. 20 (2005) 1543–1548] 0 aCorrigendum to It was an artefact not the result A note on syste c05/2006 a756-758 0 v211 aSeppelta, R1 aRichterb, O u//www.simulistics.com/publications/corrigendum-it-was-artefact-not-result-note-systems-dynamic-environ-model-softw-20-200502003nas a2200253 4500008003900000245009500039210006900134260001200203300001400215490000700229520119300236653005301429653001501482653001101497653001901508653001501527653002601542653001101568653001101579653001801590100001501608700001501623856011101638 2005 d00a“It was an artefact not the result”: A note on systems dynamic model development tools0 aIt was an artefact not the result A note on systems dynamic mode c12/2005 a1543-15480 v203 a

Environmental modelling is done more and more by practising ecologists rather than computer scientists or mathematicians. This is because there is a broad spectrum of development tools available that allows graphical coding of complex models of dynamic systems and help to abstract from the mathematical issues of the modelled system and the related numerical problems for estimating solutions. In this contribution, we study how different modelling tools treat a test system, a highly non-linear predator–prey model, and how the numerical solutions vary. We can show that solutions (a) differ if different development tools are chosen but the same numerical procedure is selected; (b) depend on undocumented implementation details; (c) vary even for the same tool but for different versions; and (d) are generated but with no notifications on numerical problems even if these could be identified. We conclude that improved documentation of numeric methods used in the modelling software is essential to make sure that process based models formulated in terms of these modelling packages do not become “black box” models due to uncertainty in integration methods.

10aLotka-Volterra equation; Predator-prey modelling10aMATEMATICA10aMATLAB10aModel analysis10aMODELMAKER10aNumerical ODE solvers10aSimile10aSTELLA10aStiff systems1 aSeppelt, R1 aRichter, O u//www.simulistics.com/publications/it-was-artefact-not-result-note-systems-dynamic-model-development-tools