02293nas a2200169 4500008004100000245013100041210006900172260001600241300001100257490000700268520152300275100002001798700002801818700003001846700002401876856022301900 2019 eng d00aLand Use Guidelines to Maintain Habitat Diversity of Wood- Pastures in the Southern Carpathians Under Projected Climate Change0 aLand Use Guidelines to Maintain Habitat Diversity of Wood Pastur cOct-09-2019 a1 - 240 v743 a

The biodiversity of wood-pastures depends on a balance between human interference and natural vegetation succession, which however is undergoing changes driven by socio-economic factors and climate change. Widely spread throughout Europe, wood-pastures were subject to either intensification or abandonment, leading to habitat segregation and loss. This is currently the fate of large Romanian remnant woodpastures and climate warming further complicates management adaptation.
In a series of simulation experiments, we compared the long-term effects of different land use and climate change scenarios on the habitat diversity of a wood-pasture in the Southern Carpathians (Fundata village, Romania). We tested livestock densities according to management guidelines, complemented with shrub-cutting in order to maintain a structurally-diverse landscape with high habitat values in the light of climate change. We found that significant losses of open pastureland and inclusion into forest, as well as landscape structural simplification and loss of complex habitats can be expected from climate warming, with more severe consequences in a hotter climate perspective. We arguefor the re-establishment of the traditional multi-use of wood-pastures at optimum livestock densities in combination with low-intensity shrubcutting, because our study demonstrated that traditional practices offer a balanced compromise between agricultural use and maintaining habitat mosaics that are robust to climate change.

1 aStoicescu, Iona1 aPătru-Stupariu, Ileana1 aHossu, Constantina, Alina1 aPeringer, Alexander uhttps://www.landscape-online.org/index.php/lo/article/view/LO.201974https://www.landscape-online.org/index.php/lo/article/download/LO.201974/87https://www.landscape-online.org/index.php/lo/article/download/LO.201974/8702910nas a2200145 4500008004100000245008300041210006900124260001200193300001000205490000700215520246300222100001602685700002702701856003602728 2019 eng d00aLinking Spatial and Temporal Modeling: A Case Study from the Eastern Pamir, TJ0 aLinking Spatial and Temporal Modeling A Case Study from the East c10/2019 a29-410 v153 a

The Eastern Pamir of Tajikistan is a remote high mountain region located in the east of Tajikistan. Today, a great share of the Eastern Pamir’s local energy demand is satisfied by dwarf shrubs (Krascheninnikovia ceratoides and Artemisia spp.) and animal manure. Besides of their energetic potential, dwarf shrubs are an important nutrient source for local livestock. It is assumed that overuse of local dwarf shrub stands leads to a degradation of pastures. With decreasing pasture quality, potentially, less livestock can be kept by locals. Besides of the economic losses associated with a decrease in livestock numbers, yields of manure also decline. In order to compensate the missing manure yields, locals may harvest even more dwarf shrubs. Thus, potentially a self-reinforcing functional chain exists in this system. BRECKLE AND WUCHERER (2006) refer to the degradation of pasturelands due to excessive dwarf shrub harvest in the Pamir Mountains as teresken syndrome. In a field study, we identified typical current energy carrier usage patterns in the village of Alichur, the second largest settlement in the Eastern Pamir. We then used a System Dynamics and Geographical Information Systems combining hybrid approach to analyze the energy system of Alichur and we modeled two scenarios of the system: one pessimistic in terms of dwarf shrub growth and one optimistic. Both scenarios show that in the short to medium term a collapse of the energy system of Alichur is unlikely to happen. The optimistic scenario indicates that resource consumption currently is sustainable in terms of pasture quality and dwarf shrub balance. The assumed self-reinforcing functional chain could not be confirmed. After all, the model provides strong indications that the teresken syndrome does not apply for Alichur. In addition to these findings, the case study shows, that combining SD and GIS in one model, allows for a conceptual understanding of the modeled system (mainly SD part), mass-balance simulations (SD and GIS parts) and visualization of model results (GIS part). Thereby, in addition to the case study results, this work demonstrates that System Dynamics and Geographical Information Systems combining hybrid approaches are a powerful tool for case study analysis, model simulation and result presentation. The approach is able to clarify structural assumption on the regional Social-Ecological-System and to support management decision.

1 aHohberg, G.1 aRaumer, H., G. Schwarz u//www.simulistics.com/node/439602521nas a2200217 4500008004100000022001300041245013700054210006900191260001600260300001200276490000800288520177600296100002402072700002202096700002002118700002102138700002802159700002602187700002302213856006702236 2016 eng d a0304380000aLandscape-scale simulation experiments test Romanian and Swiss management guidelines for mountain pasture-woodland habitat diversity0 aLandscapescale simulation experiments test Romanian and Swiss ma cJan-06-2016 a41 - 490 v3303 a

Distinct guidelines have been proposed in Romania and Switzerland for the management of pasture-woodlands that either focused on the regulation of grazing pressure (Romanian production perspective) or overall tree cover (Swiss conservation perspective). However, the landscape structural diversity and the cover of forest-grassland ecotones, which are both crucial for nature conservation value, were not explicitly considered.

We aimed to compare the country-specific management guidelines regarding their efficiency for the conservation of the structurally diverse forest-grassland mosaics in the light of recent land-use and climate change.

In strategic simulation experiments using the process-based model of pasture-woodland ecosystems WoodPaM, we analyzed the relationships among drivers for the formation of mosaic patterns (grazing intensity, climate change) and the resulting landscape properties (tree cover, forest-grassland ecotones, mosaic structure) during the past until today (2000 AD).

The results showed that tree canopy densification following recent climate warming is likely to trigger landscape structural shifts. Medium grazing pressure promoted the development of the full range of pasture-woodland habitats and is therefore confirmed as a management strategy that balances agronomic demands and nature conservation value. Tree cover is rejected as a criteria to monitor pasture-woodland conservation status, because its relationship to landscape structural diversity and to the cover of forest-grassland ecotones did not hold for changing climate.

Our results suggest “experimental-retrospective” analysis as a useful tool to test conclusions from expert knowledge.

1 aPeringer, Alexander1 aGillet, François1 aRosenthal, Gert1 aStoicescu, Ioana1 aPătru-Stupariu, Ileana1 aStupariu, Mihai-Sorin1 aButtler, Alexandre uhttps://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0304380016300795